STRENGTH: A mature politician, the two-term MLA has been an MP twice and was even an Union minister. His biggest strength is former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who has been campaigning rigorously for him. Hooda is popular among the Jat voters, who have a significant population in Adampur segment.
A strong team of leaders and supporters from across castes and communities has been helping Hooda’s campaign. His son and Rajya Sabha MP Deepender Hooda too has been rigorously canvassing for the candidate.
WEAKNESS: Called an “outsider”, JP belongs to Kaithal district and had even contested the 2019 assembly polls from Kalayat in Kaithal. There are allegations that after contesting 2009 assembly election for the Congress from Adampur, he later never visited Adampur, which is part of Haryana’s ‘Bagri’ belt.
OPPORTUNITY: JP’s victory would not only bring him to mainstream politics but would also help Hooda become the strongest Congress leader in Haryana. JP’s victory would send a clear signal to the Congress high command that Hooda is the only party leader who holds the fort in Haryana.
THREAT: The bypoll is seen as Hooda versus Kuldeep Bishnoi, who quit Congress due to Hooda’s dominance in the party. Although Hooda and his team have been canvassing for JP, infighting and groupism in Congress is visible in the constituency. As the Congress candidate is mainly banking on Jat votes, INLD and AAP candidates, who also belong to the Jat community, will affect this vote. Bishnoi has a following among non-Jats and would try to polarise them against JP.
Bhavya Bishnoi (BJP)
STRENGTH: He is the grandson of former Haryana CM Bhajan Lal. The Bhajan Lal family has never lost any assembly poll from Adampur due to the patriarch’s clout. Bhavya is the candidate of ruling BJP-JJP combine and the entire government machinery is working for him. He is banking on non-Jat votes. His promises of instant development if he is elected depend on his membership of the ruling party, which would also help him in getting swing votes.
WEAKNESS: Bhavya’s biggest weakness is his family’s prolonged absence from the constituency after winning polls. His father is accused of remaining absent from Adampur for most of his term. The family is not easily accessible. Another weakness is the farming community’s anger against BJP because of its agri policies. A rigorous campaign by former CM Hooda will go against him as the Cong leader has clout in the area.
OPPORTUNITY: Bhavya’s victory would be a lifesaver for his father and would help the family carry forward the legacy of Bhajan Lal. Bhavya’s victory would also put a stamp on the BJP-JJP coalition government. It would also help BJP to convey the message that it is the only powerful party in the state at present.
THREAT: Strong resentment against the BJP-JJP coalition in rural areas is the biggest threat to Bhavya’s prospects. Bishnoi, who has failed to carry forward the strong political legacy of Bhajan Lal, is known for party hopping. Many BJP leaders, upset over Bishnoi joining BJP, may not like Bhavya to win. As JJP has always been against Bhajan Lal’s family, there are rumours that it may not give whole-hearted support to Bhavya.
Kurda Ram Nambardar (INLD)
STRENGTH: A local leader, Kurda Ram has been closely connected to people at the grassroots in the constituency. A member of the Jat community, he was very active during the farmers’ agitation against the Centre’s three farm laws and former Haryana CM O P Chautala has been rigorously campaigning for him and making emotional appeals to the voters. Chautala Senior has the charisma to influence people through his presence and oratory skills.
WEAKNESS: Kurda Ram is considered a turncoat as he joined INLD at the eleventh hour after he was denied nomination by the Congress. Most of the INLD cadre has shifted to Hooda, who has managed to influence voters in Adampur. Kurda Ram had contested assembly election as a nominee of the Haryana Vikas Party, formed by former CM Bansi Lal in 2000, but could not even get 5,000 votes in Adampur. He does not have strong support from grassroots workers like Congress and BJP.
OPPORTUNITY: INLD has only one seat in the assembly, so by winning Adampur bypoll, it would make a strong comeback and would be able to revitalise itself. Kurda Ram’s victory would also be Ellenabad MLA Abhay Chautala’s moral victory as he has been struggling to prove his leadership.
THREAT: His biggest threat is from Congress and AAP candidates, who are also banking on Jat votes. Bhavya, who is banking on his grandfather Bhajan Lal’s clout, is also a threat. As Congress and AAP candidates, JP and Satender Singh also belong to the Jat community, their presence would lead to division of Jat votes.
Satender Singh (AAP)
STRENGTH: He is a local, belonging to Neoli village in Adampur seat. He earlier contested for the Congress. He knows the seat well and is a well-known figure. He had joined BJP after leaving Congress. AAP recently had a landslide victory in neighbouring Punjab. Even Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann campaigned for him. Many locals influenced by AAP ideology are supporting him and he may get the support of silent voters too. He belongs to the Jat community, which has a strong presence in the area.
WEAKNESS: His party-hopping. Before polls, he joined AAP only for a party ticket. He is known as a turncoat who may switch loyalty within a short period. His campaign is mostly managed by an AAP team from Delhi. Local leaders or workers are not seen with him during the campaign. His supporters are largely on social media.
OPPORTUNITY: A victory would not only establish him in state’s politics, but also send a signal about AAP’s prospects in 2024 assembly polls. As his opponents are Bhajan Lal’s grandson Bhavya and former Union minister JP, he would emerge as a giantkiller. His win would help Arvind Kejriwal focus on Haryana in 2024. It would also send a signal that AAP is an alternative to Congress, INLD and BJP.
THREAT: His biggest threat is the last-minute cancellation of public meetings by Kejriwal. This conveyed a message AAP had accepted the poor standing of its candidate. A rigorous campaign by BJP and Congress has put him on the backfoot. Some AAP workers also left the party opposing Satender’s nomination, accusing the party of nominating him because of money power.
