On Saturday, over 55 lakh voters in the hill state will decide the fate of 412 candidates, including chief minister Jairam Thakur, former CM Virbhadhra Singh’s son Vikramaditya Singh and former BJP chief Satpal Singh Satti, in the elections for the 68-member state assembly.
The ruling BJP is hoping to repeat its feat of 2017 and buck the general trend of the state ruling out the incumbents. The state has a four-decade history of voting out the ruling party. However, the Congress is urging voters to stick to tradition and vote for a change.
On poll eve, both BJP and Congress claimed they were headed towards a majority and would form the government.
Meanwhile, unlike previous elections, the entry of AAP has somewhat queered the pitch for both the parties. Though it remains to be seen whether AAP’s debut turns out to be a non-starter or ends up hurting the poll prospects of BJP or Congress.
Prestige vs survival
For BJP and Congress, the results of the Himachal Pradesh will have vastly different implications.
The BJP, which has already retained all the four states that went to polls earlier this year, a victory in Himachal would only consolidate its position as a dominant political force.
Another victory in Himachal would come as a feather in the cap of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has coined the slogan of “pro-incumbency” in context of the party.
Earlier, BJP chief JP Nadda told news agency PTI that the party had emerged as a trend-setting force with people choosing to re-elect its incumbent governments and preferring it over other parties, where the BJP is not in power.
Plus, it would boost the BJP’s chances in the nine state elections due next year, including the all-important Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, and later in the 2024 general election.
Meanwhile, for the Congress, which has been on a downhill electorally since the past two election cycles, wresting Himachal Pradesh from the BJP is a matter of survival.
The stakes are even higher for the grand old party which has installed Mallikarjun Kharge, its first non-Gandhi Congress president in 24 years, with former chief Rahul Gandhi giving the campaign circuit a complete miss.
The Congress has lost in nine states over two years including West Bengal, Kerala, Assam, Puducherry in 2021 and Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur this year.
Currenlty, it is in power on its own in just Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
Will AAP play spoilsport?
The Aam Aadmi Party will fancy itself as a third political force in the state on the back of its emphatic victory in Punjab and decent gains in Goa.
It is also contesting elections in Gujarat, which will be held on December 1 and 5.
However, unlike Gujarat where AAP has been actively campaigning for weeks, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party ran a rather muted campaign in Himachal Pradesh.
Therefore, heading into the polls, the contest is more a direct one between the BJP and the Congress in line with past trends.
However, since AAP is contesting all 68 seats, it will be hoping to dent the poll prospects of both BJP and Congress.
Punjab minister Harjot Singh Bains, who is AAP’s Himachal Pradesh in charge, expressed confidence that his party will make a difference in the state.
Campaigning: Charged-up BJP vs ‘spirited’ Congress
Though some opinions polls predicted that Congress could give BJP a tough fight in the state, the grand old party ran a rather toned down campaign in the run up to the polls.
The opposition Congress principally banked on general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra for its campaigning. Former Congress leader Rahul Gandhi stayed away from the hustings due to his multi-state Bharat Jodo Yatra.
Senior Congress leader Anand Sharma noted that his party’s campaign planning for the Himachal could have been “much better” with the deployment of senior leaders, and rued that his services were not fully utilised. However, he said that Priyanka led a spirited campaign in the state.
Sharma was among the prominent members of the group of 23 leaders, who wrote to Sonia Gandhi in 2020 seeking large-scale reforms. He had resigned from the chairmanship of the party’s steering committee for Himachal, reportedly saying he was not consulted on the planning for the assembly elections.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the BJP’s campaign from the front, wrapping up his canvassing with a personal appeal to voters of the state, where he said every vote cast for the BJP symbol “lotus” will enhance his strength.
BJP president J P Nadda, home minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath also held a series of poll meetings apart from public outreach for the saffron party.
Poll promises
The BJP has consciously worked to woo the significant women voters of the state who have been outnumbering their male counterparts in all elections since 1998.
The party has also released a standalone manifesto for women in an attempt to woo them, promising 33 per cent reservation in government jobs, new educational institutions and sops for various segments.
It has also promised eight lakh jobs to the people of the state.
Separately, Union home minister Amit Shah has promised the implementation of Uniform Civil Code it the party comes to power.
Meanwhile, the Congress has promised the restoration of the old pension scheme, 300 units of free power and a Rs 680-crore StartUp fund.
Star candidates and schedule
Chief minister Jairam Thakur is contesting from Seraj in Mandi while former BJP chief Satti is trying his luck from Una.
Urban development minister Suresh Bhardwaj is contesting from Kasumpti, Congress CLP leader Mukesh Agnihotri from Haroli, ex chief minister Virbhadra Singh‘s son Vikramaditya Singh from Shimla Rural, former HPCC chief and Campaign Committee chief Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu from Nadaun and Congress Manifesto Committee chief Dhani Ram Shandil in Solan.
The voting is scheduled from 8am to 5pm.
The Election Commission has set up a total of 7,884 polling stations including three auxiliary polling stations in far flung areas. Of these, there are 789 vulnerable booths and 397 critical ones.
The EC has also set up its highest booth in Tashigang in Kaza in Spiti area of Lahaul Spiti district of the state at a height of 15,256 feet and would cater to 52 voters.
SWOT analysis
BJP banking on Modi
- Strengths: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, first and foremost. Himachal Pradesh has a history of not returning the incumbent to office and BJP’s hope of reversing that trend rests on Modi to a great extent. The party can also count on its organisation machinery to deliver while the disarray in the Congress will be to its advantage.
- Weaknesses: Over-reliance on Modi could backfire and anti-incumbency is a real threat. In an online survey by a Shimla-based research group, 72.6% respondents said the BJP will face anti-incumbency. Former CMs Prem Kumar Dhumal and Shanta Kumar are also not as active as they used to be owing to advancing age.
- Opportunities: Chief minister Jai Ram Thakur’s clean image will provide BJP a credible face to go to the polls with. AAP’s entry will mean three-way contests in several seats and the party could eat into Congress votes, to the BJP’s advantage.
- Threats: The biggest threat is Himachal Pradesh doing what it always does — voting out the incumbent. Also, the Congress has accused the BJP of bringing the state to financial ruin and if it finds resonance with people, then the battle could be tough.
Congress in disarray
- Strengths: Difficult to discern at this moment but the state remains one of the few where the party still has a structure and genuine support. The state unit is led by Pratibha Singh, the widow of six-time CM Virbhadra Singh, who could rally the party around now that the poll dates have been announced.
- Weaknesses: The general drift in the Congress nationally has not left the state unit untouched. A lack of energy was palpable while senior leader Anand Sharma’s role is up in the air. How the second rung state leadership rises to the challenge will be key.
- Opportunities: After the near-miss in Uttarakhand which it was widely expected to win, Himachal presents a golden opportunity to the Congress to wrest a state from the BJP. AAP’s entry notwithstanding, it essentially remains a two-horse race and Congress will take heart from the state’s voting tradition. Also, it has the wind in its sails after its by-election victories in the Mandi parliamentary seat along with the assembly seats of Arki, Jubbal-Kotkhai and Fatehpur last year.
- Threats: AAP is the unknown quantity which could derail the Congress’s plans. If the newbie takes away a chunk of its votes, like it has done in other states, the party could flounder. The BJP can be expected to throw everything into the campaign and will not give up easily. Any rancour over ticket distribution could also be fatal.
(With inputs from PTI)
